Preternatural events have recently occurred on the Ukraine-Russian border. Beyond the Ukrainian border, Russian military forces have been mobilised and are operating. Ukraine’s Chief of Defense Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has stated that Russia is planning an invasion of Ukraine between the end of October and the middle of January. According to some experts, Russian forces could number up to 100,000. The Russian troops are not the only ones who have been mobilized. Tanks, submarines, air defence systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and other weapons are included. All of this raises one question in people’s minds: Is there a genuine threat of invasion?
The main reason for this mobility is Ukraine’s participation in NATO’s enhanced opportunity partner interoperability program, as well as its close ties with the United States and other NATO members. NATO provided collective defence guarantees during the process, and the US provided advanced war equipment and war experts to train the Ukrainian army.
The impact of a possible invasion, not only for Ukraine, on Europe and Turkey will be significant. Russia wants NATO to halt its expansion, withdraw from Russian borders, and re-establish its border with Russia before 1997. Furthermore, Russia is aware of Western countries’ support for Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand, recognizes that it does not need to invade Ukraine because Crimea is already on its doorstep and controls the region de facto. Furthermore, according to the rhetoric of western powers and the United States, Russia cannot bear the economic burden of a potential invasion. In such a scenario, the Russian economy will be unable to cope with the crisis for an extended period of time. Furthermore, Ukraine has modernized with the assistance of advanced US military technology, the most notable of which is the Bayraktar TB2, a Turkish medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis can be viewed as the United States and other Western powers isolating Russia from its Chinese ties and dragging it into the quagmire through economic sanctions. Furthermore, Russia appears to be attempting to extract concessions from the United States in order to isolate Ukraine from NATO dominance.
Finally, Ukraine must remember the Georgian uprising and the 2014 Crimea war; additionally, Ukraine must maintain the power balance between the United States and Russia.
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